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Douglas Elliman Global Update

The Mackay|Dixon Team|June 26, 2024
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All-time highs
Resilience or dysfunction. It's hard to know the difference when it comes to the US housing market. 
Mortgage rates have now edged down for three weeks due to the brighter outlook for interest rates, yet at 6.87% the 30-year rate remains painfully elevated - see chart below from Freddie Mac. That puts the 30-year rate roughly back where it was in April, when national house prices hit another all-time high, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, published yesterday
The problems are now well documented. High house prices prevent many would-be buyers from exiting the rental sector. Long-term mortgage rates provide a powerful disincentive to move, which strangles supply and pushes up prices, even when demand weakens.
The supply side is improving, but slowly. Plus, the rate of house price growth is slowing. The National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain, down from 8.3% the previous month. The index of 20 cities posted a 7.2% gain, down from 7.5%. But this is still remarkable growth to be posting on the cusp of a new, albeit likely slow, rate cutting cycle.

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