Return of the "dot plot"

September 21, 2022
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That spiral is set to continue when the Fed publishes the results of its latest meeting today. Markets expect a third consecutive 0.75% hike, which would bring the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3% to 3.25%.

Perhaps more anticipated than the hike itself will be the so-called "dot plot" to be published alongside the decision. The plot is effectively a compilation of officials’ interest rate projections for the period through to the end of 2025. Economists at Goldman Sachs believe the Fed will hike interest rates four more times between now and the end of 2023, eventually holding them at a range between 4.25% to 4.50% until 2024.

The Bank of England will follow suit tomorrow. Market pricing implies we'll see a 0.75% hike, with rates peaking at 4.5% next year. That would be the biggest single tightening in more than thirty years.

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